Better examples address issues that we are going to face soon. Unfortunately, many portrayals of AI in fiction focus too far into the future, sometimes imputing capabilities that are unlikely to ever exist, and consequently fail to engage with the challenges that we face in the near future. Done right, fiction serves as a way to guide the decisions that we make. Unfortunately, great storytellers have a way of tricking strategists into conflating stories with strategies and predictions.įiction is a great way to explore the possibilities and risks of AI. Neither should strategists let a compelling story get in the way of a strategy that works. Storytellers don’t let trivial things like reality get in the way of a good plot.

Good stories, however, are even less predictive of the future than attempts to predict the future. Sci-fi creators are imaginative and engaging-they tell a good story. Unfortunately, the same qualities we admire about good sci-fi can focus our attention away from immediate challenges to problems in the distant future or inflate hopes and fears about AI’s future potential. Movies like War Games and The Day After reflected concerns about international politics, and even affected domestic policy. In contrast, real-world fears of nuclear apocalypse in the 1950s found expression in films like The Day the Earth Stood Still. Buck Rogers in the 25th Century and Flash Gordon reflected the general optimism about technology in the early 20th century. Wells’ War in the Air predicted air war years before WWI. Less than a decade after the Hunley became the first submarine to sink another ship, Twenty Thousand Leagues Under the Sea anticipated the influence submarine warfare would have in the 20th century. We can look to fiction to help predict the future, but we must be careful about what we internalize.Īs a society, our fears and hopes about the future often manifest themselves in science fiction (sci-fi). Despite difficulties in predicting the future, our future will be a product of human imagination today. Outcomes in war can bear little relation to expectations.

An unidentified Danish Parliamentary wit once claimed, “ It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.” Nowhere are predictions more challenging than in national security.

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